Two years ago, Donald Trump was buzzing. He had just pulled off the greatest comeback in political history and reclaimed the White House in a landslide. Very few had seen it coming.

Naturally, although he had a million things to do, the Don found time to chat with Piers on the phone.

“This is quite something, right?” Trump told Piers the morning after his stunning victory. 

“How do you feel?” Piers asked.

“I feel great!” Trump said.

Well, after the midterm results drop tomorrow night, it’s unlikely President Trump will feel great.

His Republican Party is expected to be beaten by the Democrats –  and by a huge margin too. 

According to the most recent polls, Democrats are ahead of Republicans 51.4% to 43.2% nationally. They are predicted to win the House of Representatives, which is currently controlled by the GOP. Flipping the Senate is also on the cards.

Polymarket, which correctly predicted Trump’s 2024 win, puts a 78% chance on Democrats sweeping both the House and the Senate.

Can Trump, the ultimate comeback kid, beat the odds again? Can he come out on top or, at least, minimise the damage inflicted? 

Or has the moment of his reckoning, at long last, arrived? Is the president who brags he is “THE GREATEST” going to be utterly humiliated? And how will the results shape Trump’s last two years in the Oval Office?

Tune in to our live show from DC on Tuesday night (7pm EST / 11pm GMT) to find out.

The Epic Stakes

Every election is also a battle of narratives. And this time the battle is more of an underground grudge match. In the blue corner, Democrats are saying they are up against a venal, warmongering mad king who trashed the US economy. In the red corner, Republicans are claiming they are fighting Communist Islamists who want to end the American way of life.

Ok, that’s obviously a bit of caricature. But the most vocal elements in both parties do think that. And the political landscape is extremely polarised.

The question, as always, is who swing voters will find most convincing – or, if we are being honest, least repellent. 

Historically, midterms are seen as a referendum on the president in power. Although Americans are technically voting in local elections – they are picking their district representative, their senator, and in many states their governor too – they want to send a message to the occupant of the Oval Office.

Trump has made it easy for them. Ahead of tomorrow’s vote, he has done everything he can to put himself front and centre. “In this election, I'm asking you to pretend, please, that I’m on the ballot,” he told a rally in Kansas.

But that’s a risky move – and it will likely backfire. 

Almost every president since 1945 has lost seats in Congress after the midterms. This was the case of Trump’s two immediate predecessors, Barack Obama and Joe Biden. It would be a sensational feat if Trump bucked the trend. (As a reminder, during his first midterms in 2018, Republicans lost control of the House but retained the Senate.)

Besides, Trump is not exactly popular. If voters pretend he is on the ballot, they might well choose to rebuke him. The president’s approval rating is at a meagre 37%. He is being blamed for a war in Iran that has sent oil prices skyrocketing and made life more expensive for Americans. Meanwhile, voters are also worried that he has used the presidency to enrich himself and his family.

The momentum is clearly with Democrats. But this doesn’t mean voters are necessarily ready to fall head over heels for them. Only 43% of Americans see Democrats favourably, and the party is undergoing a transformation.

The traditional liberal establishment is on the retreat, and a new generation of progressives is coming to the fore. It is made up of young, diverse, energetic candidates – many of whom identify as democratic socialists. Taking their cues from New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, these fresh-faced Democrats are campaigning on higher taxes for the rich, universal healthcare (“Medicare For All”), and regulating AI. They are also sharply anti-Israel. Critics accuse them of peddling dangerous economic policies and fuelling antisemitism.

Will the rise of the Democratic Socialists, which has been much heralded in the media, energise the youth and increase turnout? Or will it convince moderates and independents to hold their nose and back Republicans?

Two Races To Watch

There are a lot of elections tomorrow. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats in the Senate are up for grabs. 36 states will also choose their governor.

But you should pay particular attention to these two races. They tell us a lot about current political dynamics and will shape where US politics goes next.